GEO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TRANSBOUNDARY ANIMAL DISEASES: INTERACTIONS BETWEEN HEALTH RESILIENCE, SECURITY AND MARKETS

Abstract

Transboundary infectious animal diseases, such as African Swine Fever (ASF) and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), exert a significant impact on agrarian systems, trade flows, and regional economic stability. The present study analyzes the geoeconomic effects of such epizootics in Southeastern Europe, placing emphasis on the interaction between health resilience, security, and markets.

An interdisciplinary approach is applied, combining data and concepts from veterinary epizootiology, economic geography, and geoeconomic models.

A conceptual “Index of Geoeconomic Vulnerability” (IGV) is developed, integrating biological, economic, and social indicators with the aim of assessing regional exposure to transboundary bio-risks. Due to the lack of homogeneous and complete regional statistical datasets for the period 2018-2023, the IGV is applied to simulated typical values derived from published ranges of FAO, WOAH, EFSA, and the World Bank.

The results are conceptual and demonstrate how the index can be used for preliminary orientation in vulnerability assessment: countries with intensive livestock production and lower economic diversification show higher index values.

The study highlights the need for regional buffer mechanisms, integrated policies for prevention and early warning, as well as improved coordination between veterinary and economic structures. The presented framework can be further developed once real and homogeneous empirical data become available, which would allow the application of the IGV in operational models for bio-risk forecasting and management.