FORECASTING MIGRATION OUTFLOWS AND DEMOGRAPHIC SUSTAINABILITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN TRENDS (2025–2040)

Abstract

This article is devoted to forecasting the demographic situation in the Republic of Moldova up to 2040, with particular emphasis on contemporary migration trends and the persistent population outflow from the country. Moldova currently represents one of the most demographically vulnerable states in Europe, experiencing a net population loss of approximately 115 persons per day. For a country with a relatively small population size, such a sustained decline constitutes a serious long-term threat not only to demographic sustainability but also to economic development and social stability. The study examines the combined impact of international migration, natural population decrease, and age-structure transformation on future demographic dynamics. Using official statistical data and scenario-based projections, the article outlines potential trajectories of population change and assesses their implications for the labor market, public finances, and human capital formation. The findings aim to contribute to the academic and policy-oriented debate on demographic resilience and migration management in small transition economies.

Acknowledgements: This article was elaborated within the framework of the Subprogram 030101 “Strengthening the resilience, competitiveness, and sustainability of the economy of the Republic of Moldova in the context of the accession process to the European Union”, institutional funding.